Economic analysis: indicators and forecasts

Sources of market information and real impacts

Course objectives

  • Understand the relevance of indicators by controlling their construction
  • Distinguish the importance of major economic indicators
  • Learn how to build your own opinion

Introduction: do the United States still give the tone ?

  • What is the use of indicators ?
  • Volatility, role of expectations and consensus building in the markets
  • Master key indicators, construction and interpretation by markets
  • Nominal / Real GDP and growth
    • Household consumption vs. companies investment
    • Impact of government spending
    • Impact of exports and imports
  • Business cycles and inflation
    • Inflation by demand / by costs

Case Study: Analysis of scenarios for inflation by demand/ by costs in the USA

  • The role of expectations
  • The Phillips curve for the short term and long term

Case Study: Statistical analysis of unemployment and inflation in the USA

  • Comparison of 'non-farm payrolls' and individual investigations
  • The ECB and Fed monetary aggregates: relevance to investors
  • The consumer price index
    • Core-CPI Index: evolution and relevance to the investor
    • Inflation of consumer prices in the USA
  • The opinion of decion-makers: ISM (U.S.), PMI (Euro), Tankan (Japan), IFO and ZEW (ALL) indices
  • The situation of households and consumer confidence

How to measure economic cycles?

  • Introduction to the tools of economic forecasting of international monetary institutions: ARMA and DSGE
  • Tool of economic forecasts: the 'ARRM' method
  • The SIA grid (Statistical Indicators Associates)

Case Study: Analysis of diffusion indices followed by markets

Case Study: Example of simple calculation of a composite index

  • Interpretation of variations
  • Filter false signals
  • Rules and detention of signals: empirical / probabilistic approach

In the trading room ...

  • Dashboard of most relevant economic indicators

Case Study: Analysis of the impact of industrial production and the capacity use rate

Tigrane Kibarian

Tigrane Kibarian

Tigrane, a graduate of ESSEC and Warwick Business School, began his career in auditing at Arthur Andersen before joining General Electric - Energy Division - in corporate finance, working on industrial, regulatory and M&A assignments in France and Italy.
He joined Goldman Sachs in London, first as COO in the Equities division and then as VP on the institutional portfolio restructuring desk, working on ALM and cross-asset allocation issues.
He made a transition to asset management by becoming Global Macro portfolio manager at Odin Capital, before becoming its COO. After this experience, he founded Zentak Capital with a partner to offer institutional clients a volatility arbitrage strategy.
He has been working in training for 10 years, as a trainer and also in charge of CIB-AM clients for Bärchen. Tigrane is Lean Six Sigma and FCA certified.

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