Economic analysis: indicators and forecasts

Sources of market information and real impacts

Course objectives

  • Understand the relevance of indicators by controlling their construction
  • Distinguish the importance of major economic indicators
  • Learn how to build your own opinion

Introduction: do the United States still give the tone ?

  • What is the use of indicators ?
  • Volatility, role of expectations and consensus building in the markets
  • Master key indicators, construction and interpretation by markets
  • Nominal / Real GDP and growth
    • Household consumption vs. companies investment
    • Impact of government spending
    • Impact of exports and imports
  • Business cycles and inflation
    • Inflation by demand / by costs

Case Study: Analysis of scenarios for inflation by demand/ by costs in the USA

  • The role of expectations
  • The Phillips curve for the short term and long term

Case Study: Statistical analysis of unemployment and inflation in the USA

  • Comparison of 'non-farm payrolls' and individual investigations
  • The ECB and Fed monetary aggregates: relevance to investors
  • The consumer price index
    • Core-CPI Index: evolution and relevance to the investor
    • Inflation of consumer prices in the USA
  • The opinion of decion-makers: ISM (U.S.), PMI (Euro), Tankan (Japan), IFO and ZEW (ALL) indices
  • The situation of households and consumer confidence

How to measure economic cycles?

  • Introduction to the tools of economic forecasting of international monetary institutions: ARMA and DSGE
  • Tool of economic forecasts: the 'ARRM' method
  • The SIA grid (Statistical Indicators Associates)

Case Study: Analysis of diffusion indices followed by markets

Case Study: Example of simple calculation of a composite index

  • Interpretation of variations
  • Filter false signals
  • Rules and detention of signals: empirical / probabilistic approach

In the trading room ...

  • Dashboard of most relevant economic indicators

Case Study: Analysis of the impact of industrial production and the capacity use rate

Tigrane Kibarian

Tigrane Kibarian

Tigrane Kibarian graduated from ESSEC and began his career in audit at Arthur Andersen before joining General Electric, where he worked in corporate finance. He then joined Goldman Sachs in London where he was first team leader in charge of the Business Development of Equities Division. He then worked in restructuring large institutional portfolios across all asset classes. Now an independent trader, active in major index, currency and bonds markets, his broad vision of the economy and his cross – trading room and products experience give him a very practical understanding of financial markets.

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